Do the "600 Non-Warming Graphs" Actually Disprove Global Warming?

An independent analysis of the first 100 papers cited by NotricksZone.com

Executive Summary

The website NotricksZone.com maintains a page titled "600 Non-Warming Graphs" that presents a curated collection of scientific papers alongside extracted graphs, framed as evidence against anthropogenic global warming (AGW). This analysis independently reviewed the first 100 papers listed on that page to determine: (1) what each paper actually studied, (2) whether it supports or contradicts AGW theory, and (3) whether NotricksZone's characterization of the paper is accurate.

Principal Finding

Not a single paper in the first 100 was found to conclude that anthropogenic global warming is false. The overwhelming majority are standard paleoclimate studies documenting natural climate variability during the Holocene epoch (the last ~11,700 years). These papers study how climate has changed in the past due to orbital forcing, monsoon dynamics, and other natural factors. NotricksZone consistently extracts data showing past warm periods and presents it as evidence against current human-caused warming—a textbook example of the cherry-picking fallacy.

Results at a Glance

Do these papers contradict anthropogenic global warming?

0 Contradict AGW
4 Directly support AGW
27 Indirectly support AGW
68 Neutral (paleoclimate studies)
1 Could not classify

Paper stance on AGW theory

Directly supports AGW
4
Indirectly supports AGW
27
Neutral on AGW
68
Contradicts AGW
0

Is NotricksZone's characterization of each paper accurate?

18 Broadly accurate data point
37 Cherry-picked
19 Misleading or inaccurate
26 Could not verify

NTZ characterization accuracy

Accurate data point
18
Cherry-picked
37
Misleading / inaccurate
19
Could not verify
26

Why "It Was Warmer in the Past" Does Not Disprove Global Warming

The central logical error in the NotricksZone collection is a conflation of two different scientific questions:

Question 1: Has the Earth experienced warm periods in the past due to natural causes?
Answer: Yes, absolutely. This is well-established paleoclimate science. During the Holocene Thermal Maximum (~9,000–5,000 years ago), many regions were warmer than today due to differences in Earth's orbital parameters (Milankovitch cycles) that increased Northern Hemisphere summer insolation.

Question 2: Is the current warming trend caused by human greenhouse gas emissions?
Answer: This is a separate question entirely. The fact that natural factors caused past warmth does not mean current warming is also natural. By analogy, the fact that lightning causes forest fires does not mean arson does not exist.

In fact, paleoclimate studies demonstrating that climate is sensitive to changes in radiative forcing (whether from orbital variations, volcanic activity, or greenhouse gases) support the fundamental mechanism behind AGW theory: that changes in the Earth's energy balance produce temperature changes. If anything, evidence of high climate sensitivity in the past should increase concern about the effects of rapid anthropogenic CO2 increases.

Several papers in the sample directly undermine NotricksZone's framing. For example, Kaufman and Broadman (2023) in Nature document 6,000 years of natural cooling—making the reversal of that trend by modern warming all the more notable. Davies et al. (2022) found that recent Arctic warming in northwestern Canada exceeds the Holocene thermal maximum. Smyrnaios et al. (2022) found that Mediterranean warming rates since 2011 are 16 times greater than the closest natural analogue in the entire Holocene record.

Patterns of Misrepresentation

1. Conflating paleoclimate research with AGW denial

Approximately 90% of the papers in the sample are paleoclimate reconstructions studying the Holocene, Medieval Warm Period, or earlier interglacials. These papers reconstruct past temperatures using proxies (pollen, chironomids, isotopes, sediment cores, etc.) and are a normal part of climate science. None of them conclude that current warming is not anthropogenic.

2. Extracting single data points while ignoring conclusions

NotricksZone typically extracts a temperature value or graph showing past warmth (e.g., "3°C warmer 8,000 years ago") while ignoring the paper's actual conclusions about climate forcing, sensitivity, or the modern warming context. In multiple cases, the papers themselves note that current warming is unusual in the context of their reconstructions.

3. Geographic and temporal cherry-picking

The collection heavily over-samples China and the Tibetan Plateau (approximately 40+ of the first 100 papers). It focuses on regional reconstructions of summer temperatures during the Holocene Thermal Maximum, when Northern Hemisphere summer insolation was higher than today due to orbital cycles. Global mean temperature during the HTM was only about 0.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels—regional and seasonal extremes are not representative of global trends.

4. Omitting the Holocene cooling trend

Many of the cited papers document a long-term cooling trend over the past 5,000–6,000 years as Northern Hemisphere insolation declined. This is the "Holocene temperature conundrum" context. Current warming reverses this natural cooling trajectory, which is itself strong evidence that a new, non-orbital forcing (anthropogenic greenhouse gases) is now dominant.

Independent Fact-Checks

Multiple independent organizations have previously investigated NotricksZone's claims and reached similar conclusions:

Snopes (2017)
Investigated the claim that 58 papers from 2017 disproved global warming. Verdict: False. Found that the papers covered diverse topics and had little in common beyond containing "squiggly lines" representing climate data. Several authors of cited papers told Snopes their work actually supports anthropogenically-driven warming. The NTZ analysis was described as "crude, misinformed, and riddled with errors."
Science Feedback / Breitbart Review (2017)
Reviewed Breitbart's use of the NTZ post, concluding that the article "misrepresents research from 58 scientific papers to falsely claim that they disprove human-caused global warming." Multiple climate scientists rated the claim as "very low" credibility.
Annie Lab, HKU (2022)
Investigation found that NotricksZone "cherry-picks sections from studies to confuse readers into believing narratives against climate change." The site "only presents certain sections of the research that conform to the assertions of particular blog posts." Found examples where screenshots from papers were "deliberately incomplete" with quotes assembled from different paragraphs.
Media Bias/Fact Check
Rates NotricksZone as "Right Pseudoscience" with "Low" factual reporting and "Low Credibility." Classifies it as a "human-influenced climate change denial pseudoscience website."

Methodology

Scope: The first 100 unique papers linked on the NotricksZone "600 Non-Warming Graphs (1)" page were analyzed (of approximately 366 unique paper links on that page alone).

Process: Five parallel research agents attempted to access each paper via its published URL (ScienceDirect, Copernicus, Nature, etc.) and, when direct access was unavailable, searched for the paper via web search to locate abstracts, summaries, and secondary analyses.

Classification criteria: Each paper was classified on two axes: (1) whether its findings support, are neutral toward, or contradict AGW theory; and (2) whether NotricksZone's characterization of the paper is accurate, cherry-picked, or misleading.

Limitations: Many papers were behind paywalls (ScienceDirect was blocked), so analysis relied on abstracts, web search results, and secondary sources. Papers 81–100 had particularly limited access. This analysis covers only the first 100 of approximately 600+ cited papers. A "neutral" classification does not mean the paper supports NTZ's framing—it means the paper studies paleoclimate without directly addressing modern anthropogenic warming.

Date of analysis: March 24, 2026.

Paper-by-Paper Analysis

Use the filters below to explore the findings by category. Each card shows the paper citation, NotricksZone's claim about the paper, what the paper actually found, and our classification.

Conclusion

This analysis of the first 100 papers cited on NotricksZone's "600 Non-Warming Graphs" page found that zero papers conclude that anthropogenic global warming is false. The collection consists almost entirely of standard paleoclimate research documenting natural climate variability during the Holocene and earlier periods. These papers are legitimate science—but they are being systematically misrepresented by extracting individual data points about past warmth and presenting them as evidence against current human-caused warming.

This is a well-documented rhetorical technique: using real scientific papers as a veneer of authority while stripping away the context, caveats, and actual conclusions of the research. The scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming, supported by multiple independent lines of evidence and endorsed by every major scientific organization in the world, is not challenged by any of the papers examined here.